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 prediction and planning



Reasoning Multi-Agent Behavioral Topology for Interactive Autonomous Driving

Neural Information Processing Systems

Autonomous driving system aims for safe and social-consistent driving through the behavioral integration among interactive agents. However, challenges remain due to multi-agent scene uncertainty and heterogeneous interaction.


Sparsely Changing Latent States for Prediction and Planning in Partially Observable Domains

Neural Information Processing Systems

A common approach to prediction and planning in partially observable domains is to use recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which ideally develop and maintain a latent memory about hidden, task-relevant factors. We hypothesize that many of these hidden factors in the physical world are constant over time, changing only sparsely. To study this hypothesis, we propose Gated $L_0$ Regularized Dynamics (GateL0RD), a novel recurrent architecture that incorporates the inductive bias to maintain stable, sparsely changing latent states. The bias is implemented by means of a novel internal gating function and a penalty on the $L_0$ norm of latent state changes. We demonstrate that GateL0RD can compete with or outperform state-of-the-art RNNs in a variety of partially observable prediction and control tasks. GateL0RD tends to encode the underlying generative factors of the environment, ignores spurious temporal dependencies, and generalizes better, improving sampling efficiency and overall performance in model-based planning and reinforcement learning tasks. Moreover, we show that the developing latent states can be easily interpreted, which is a step towards better explainability in RNNs.


Perfect Prediction or Plenty of Proposals? What Matters Most in Planning for Autonomous Driving

Distelzweig, Aron, Janjoš, Faris, Scheel, Oliver, Varra, Sirish Reddy, Rajan, Raghu, Boedecker, Joschka

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- Traditionally, prediction and planning in autonomous driving (AD) have been treated as separate, sequential modules. Recently, there has been a growing shift towards tighter integration of these components, known as Integrated Prediction and Planning (IPP), with the aim of enabling more informed and adaptive decision-making. However, it remains unclear to what extent this integration actually improves planning performance. In this work, we investigate the role of prediction in IPP approaches, drawing on the widely adopted V al14 benchmark, which encompasses more common driving scenarios with relatively low interaction complexity, and the interPlan benchmark, which includes highly interactive and out-of-distribution driving situations. Our analysis reveals that even access to perfect future predictions does not lead to better planning outcomes, indicating that current IPP methods often fail to fully exploit future behavior information. Instead, we focus on high-quality proposal generation, while using predictions primarily for collision checks. We find that many imitation learning-based planners struggle to generate realistic and plausible proposals, performing worse than PDM--a simple lane-following approach. Motivated by this observation, we build on PDM with an enhanced proposal generation method, shifting the emphasis towards producing diverse but realistic and high-quality proposals. This proposal-centric approach significantly outperforms existing methods, especially in out-of-distribution and highly interactive settings, where it sets new state-of-the-art results.


PSN Game: Game-theoretic Prediction and Planning via a Player Selection Network

Qiu, Tianyu, Ouano, Eric, Palafox, Fernando, Ellis, Christian, Fridovich-Keil, David

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While game-theoretic planning frameworks are effective at modeling multi-agent interactions, they require solving large optimization problems where the number of variables increases with the number of agents, resulting in long computation times that limit their use in large-scale, real-time systems. To address this issue, we propose 1) PSN Game: a learning-based, game-theoretic prediction and planning framework that reduces runtime by learning a Player Selection Network (PSN); and 2) a Goal Inference Network (GIN) that makes it possible to use the PSN in incomplete information games where agents' intentions are unknown. A PSN outputs a player selection mask that distinguishes influential players from less relevant ones, enabling the ego player to solve a smaller, masked game involving only selected players. By reducing the number of players in the game, and therefore reducing the number of variables in the corresponding optimization problem, PSN directly lowers computation time. The PSN Game framework is more flexible than existing player selection methods as it 1) relies solely on observations of players' past trajectories, without requiring full state, action, or other game-specific information; and 2) requires no online parameter tuning. Experiments in both simulated scenarios and human trajectory datasets demonstrate that PSNs outperform baseline selection methods in 1) prediction accuracy; and 2) planning safety. PSNs also generalize effectively to real-world scenarios in which agents' objectives are unknown without fine-tuning. By selecting only the most relevant players for decision-making, PSN Game offers a general mechanism for reducing planning complexity that can be seamlessly integrated into existing multi-agent planning frameworks.


Reasoning Multi-Agent Behavioral Topology for Interactive Autonomous Driving

Neural Information Processing Systems

Autonomous driving system aims for safe and social-consistent driving through the behavioral integration among interactive agents. However, challenges remain due to multi-agent scene uncertainty and heterogeneous interaction.


Relative Position Matters: Trajectory Prediction and Planning with Polar Representation

Zhang, Bozhou, Song, Nan, Gao, Bingzhao, Zhang, Li

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory prediction and planning in autonomous driving are highly challenging due to the complexity of predicting surrounding agents' movements and planning the ego agent's actions in dynamic environments. Existing methods encode map and agent positions and decode future trajectories in Cartesian coordinates. However, modeling the relationships between the ego vehicle and surrounding traffic elements in Cartesian space can be suboptimal, as it does not naturally capture the varying influence of different elements based on their relative distances and directions. To address this limitation, we adopt the Polar coordinate system, where positions are represented by radius and angle. This representation provides a more intuitive and effective way to model spatial changes and relative relationships, especially in terms of distance and directional influence. Based on this insight, we propose Polaris, a novel method that operates entirely in Polar coordinates, distinguishing itself from conventional Cartesian-based approaches. By leveraging the Polar representation, this method explicitly models distance and direction variations and captures relative relationships through dedicated encoding and refinement modules, enabling more structured and spatially aware trajectory prediction and planning. Extensive experiments on the challenging prediction (Argoverse 2) and planning benchmarks (nuPlan) demonstrate that Polaris achieves state-of-the-art performance.


Trajectory Entropy: Modeling Game State Stability from Multimodality Trajectory Prediction

Zhang, Yesheng, Sun, Wenjian, Chen, Yuheng, Liu, Qingwei, Lin, Qi, Zhang, Rui, Zhao, Xu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Complex interactions among agents present a significant challenge for autonomous driving in real-world scenarios. Recently, a promising approach has emerged, which formulates the interactions of agents as a level-k game framework. However, this framework ignores both the varying driving complexities among agents and the dynamic changes in agent states across game levels, instead treating them uniformly. Consequently, redundant and error-prone computations are introduced into this framework. T o tackle the issue, this paper proposes a metric, termed as Trajectory Entropy, to reveal the game status of agents within the level-k game framework. The key insight stems from recognizing the inherit relationship between agent policy uncertainty and the associated driving complexity. Then, the signal-to-noise ratio of this signal is utilized to quantify the game status of agents. Based on the proposed Trajectory Entropy, we refine the current level-k game framework through a simple gating mechanism, significantly improving overall accuracy while reducing computational costs. Our method is evaluated on the Waymo and nuPlan datasets, in terms of trajectory prediction, open-loop and closed-loop planning tasks. The results demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our method, with precision improved by up to 19. 89% for prediction and up to 16. 48% for planning. OINT trajectory prediction and ego vehicle planning has been demonstrated as a promising approach to achieve intelligent Autonomous Driving (AD) [1]-[5].


Reasoning Multi-Agent Behavioral Topology for Interactive Autonomous Driving

Neural Information Processing Systems

Autonomous driving system aims for safe and social-consistent driving through the behavioral integration among interactive agents. However, challenges remain due to multi-agent scene uncertainty and heterogeneous interaction. To address this, we initiate a topological formation that serves as a compliant behavioral foreground to guide downstream trajectory generations. Specifically, we introduce Behavioral Topology (BeTop), a pivotal topological formulation that explicitly represents the consensual behavioral pattern among multi-agent future. BeTop is derived from braid theory to distill compliant interactive topology from multi-agent future trajectories.


Bridging Past and Future: End-to-End Autonomous Driving with Historical Prediction and Planning

Zhang, Bozhou, Song, Nan, Jin, Xin, Zhang, Li

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

End-to-end autonomous driving unifies tasks in a differentiable framework, enabling planning-oriented optimization and attracting growing attention. Current methods aggregate historical information either through dense historical bird's-eye-view (BEV) features or by querying a sparse memory bank, following paradigms inherited from detection. However, we argue that these paradigms either omit historical information in motion planning or fail to align with its multi-step nature, which requires predicting or planning multiple future time steps. In line with the philosophy of future is a continuation of past, we propose BridgeAD, which reformulates motion and planning queries as multi-step queries to differentiate the queries for each future time step. This design enables the effective use of historical prediction and planning by applying them to the appropriate parts of the end-to-end system based on the time steps, which improves both perception and motion planning. Specifically, historical queries for the current frame are combined with perception, while queries for future frames are integrated with motion planning. In this way, we bridge the gap between past and future by aggregating historical insights at every time step, enhancing the overall coherence and accuracy of the end-to-end autonomous driving pipeline. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset in both open-loop and closed-loop settings demonstrate that BridgeAD achieves state-of-the-art performance.